US 10Y Treasury yield
US10YLast scan 5d ago
Moderately bullish (68% confidence)
Why this score
The Confidence Score for the US 10Y Treasury yield rose to 67.7 out of 100, up from 63.4 in the previous scan, driven by an improving momentum sub-score of 62 and a strong risk sub-score of 88. This uptick reflects positive short-term momentum, marked by a MACD histogram of 0.04, while the yield continues to hold above its 200-day moving average to keep its overall long-term structure intact. However, a slight headwind remains as the yield is currently trading just 0.2% below its 50-day moving average. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether the yield can break back above its 50-day moving average to confirm a complete short-term trend recovery.
- MACD above signalHistogram 0.04 — short-term trend is up.
- Above 200-day averageLong-term trend structure remains intact.
- Below 50-day averagePrice is -0.2% below the 50-day moving average.
Nothing flagged.
Score breakdown
Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.
What changed since the last scan
5d agoSince the previous scan, the overall confidence score for the US 10Y Treasury yield rose from 63.4 to 67.7, primarily driven by a 14.9-point surge in news sentiment from 46 to 61. This shift matters because it highlights increased narrative stability around macro yields following recent Federal Reserve commentary regarding long-term rate outlooks. With no new anomaly flags detected, the dashboard shows improved tracking confidence for the asset without flagging any sudden data distortions.
- • News sentiment up 14.9 points (46 → 61)
AI confidence meter
- Data quality
- Limited
- Category coverage
- 38%
- Conflicting signals
- 1
- Missing data
- Network usage, Development, Social sentiment, Derivatives positioning, Tokenomics
- • 3 of 8 score categories had data this scan
- • 2 of 5 data feeds responded
- • 1 signal contradict the overall read
- • Score is 18 points off neutral
Bull case vs bear case
Both cases built from the same evidenceBull case
The US10Y maintains an intact long-term trend structure by remaining above its 200-day moving average, backed by a strong risk sub-score of 88 and an overall confidence score of 67.7/100. Furthermore, its short-term trend is upward with the MACD sitting above its signal line at a 0.04 histogram reading.
Bear case
Despite long-term technical support, the yield exhibits medium-term weakness by trading -0.2% below its 50-day moving average. This drag is further reflected in muted momentum and news sub-scores of 62 and 61, respectively.
Balanced read: The current evidence slightly favors the bull case due to intact long-term structure above the 200-day average and a solid 88 risk sub-score. Reclaiming the 50-day moving average from its current -0.2% deficit would strengthen the bullish outlook, while dropping below the 200-day average would flip the sentiment to bearish.
Anomalies detected
All signals →The score went from 59.8 to 70.3. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.
Market mood timeline
Last 45 days · from momentum and volatilityToday: Optimistic — Up 0.5% over 30 days; 10% below the running high; Realised volatility 39%
What US10Y is moving with
Full market structure →Price history
Daily closes · CoinbaseTechnical indicators
Network & development
Score over time
Related news
No headlines tied to US 10Y Treasury yield yet.
Missing from this report
- Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
- Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
- Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
- ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
- Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API