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Gram (prev. Toncoin)

GRAM
$1.3524h -1.96% · 7d -7.04% · 30d +2.72%

Last scan 3d ago

40Confidence-3.2

Moderately bearish (60% confidence)

Why this score

Gram’s Confidence Score slipped from 43.5 to 40.3 out of 100, primarily reflecting ongoing technical weakness, a low development sub-score of 20, and zero points in tokenomics. The coin's short-term momentum remains weak at a 40 sub-score, with its price sitting 4.8% below the 50-day moving average, below its key 200-day average, and stuck in a deep 58% drawdown from its five-year high. While news sentiment offers a minor bright spot at 59/100, zero bullish signals were detected to help reverse the current downward trajectory. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether Gram can reclaim its 50-day moving average to stabilize its short-term trend.

Bullish

Nothing flagged.

Bearish
  • MACD below signalHistogram -0.02 — short-term trend is down.
  • Below 50-day averagePrice is -4.8% below the 50-day moving average.
  • Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
Risks
  • Deep drawdownTrading 58% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum3125%40
Risk (inverted)1500%58
Network usage1875%33
Development1000%20
News sentiment1875%59
Social sentimentn/a
Derivatives positioningn/a
Tokenomics625%0

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

3d ago

Gram’s (GRAM) confidence score edged down from 43.5 to 40.3, primarily driven by a steep 33.5-point drop in Momentum from 73 to 40 alongside a 6.8-point decline in inverted Risk from 64 to 58. Conversely, fundamental categories showed notable strength, with Network usage rising 18.5 points (14 to 33), Development gaining 11.0 points (9 to 20), and News sentiment increasing 19.6 points (40 to 59). This matters because the severe loss in price momentum overrides solid improvements in underlying network activity and developer engagement, pulling down the overall score despite zero new anomaly flags.

  • • Momentum down 33.5 points (73 → 40)
  • • Risk (inverted) down 6.8 points (64 → 58)
  • • Network usage up 18.5 points (14 → 33)
  • • Development up 11.0 points (9 → 20)
  • • News sentiment up 19.6 points (40 → 59)

AI confidence meter

Leaning bearish78%
Data quality
Fair
Category coverage
75%
Conflicting signals
0
Missing data
Social sentiment, Derivatives positioning
  • • 6 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • • 4 of 5 data feeds responded
  • • Signals all point the same way
  • • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

While Gram currently lacks explicit bullish signals, it retains a relative bright spot in its news sub-score of 59 and a risk sub-score of 58. Its momentum sub-score of 40 provides a potential base for stabilization if broader sector sentiment improves.

Bear case

Bearish momentum is severe, marked by a MACD histogram of -0.02, price trading 4.8% below its 50-day moving average, and a broken 200-day moving average trend structure. Weak fundamentals compound this technical weakness, evidenced by a development sub-score of 20, a tokenomics sub-score of 0, and a severe 58% drawdown from its 5-year high.

Balanced read: The evidence currently favors the bear case due to comprehensive technical breakdowns and a low overall confidence score of 40.3/100. A flip to a bullish posture would require the price to reclaim its 50-day and 200-day moving averages alongside positive MACD histogram momentum.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
rare11.7% daily move — larger than 98.5% of days on record22d ago

Moves this size have happened on roughly 1.5% of days in the last 1.1 years. Large single-day moves often mark either the start or the exhaustion of a trend.

notableExchange volume spiking while on-chain activity is flat22d ago

Reported trading volume is 258% above its 30-day average, but on-chain transactions are only -17% off their own baseline. Volume that does not show up as network settlement is more likely to be exchange churn or wash trading than new money entering.

notableConfidence Score moved +9.0 points in a single scan28d ago

The score went from 41.0 to 50.0. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

rareConfidence Score moved +54.7 points in a single scan43d ago

The score went from 0.0 to 54.7. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Neutral — Up 2.7% over 30 days; 58% below the running high; Realised volatility 78%

What GRAM is moving with

Full market structure →
Bitcoin30d — · 90d — · Not enough overlapping data
Crude oil30d -0.12 · 90d -0.09 · Moving independently
Gold30d -0.62 · 90d 0.00 · Moderate inverse relationship
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d 0.24 · 90d -0.04 · Weak positive relationship
Silver30d -0.26 · 90d 0.05 · Weak inverse relationship
Nasdaq 10030d -0.06 · 90d -0.01 · Moving independently
S&P 50030d -0.14 · 90d 0.00 · Moving independently
US Dollar Index30d 0.17 · 90d 0.08 · Moving independently

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change -36.3%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
34.2
Neutral range
MACD hist
—
SMA 50
$1.42
SMA 200
$1.55
Volatility 30d
70.8%
ATR 14
—
Bollinger %B
—
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
1.77M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.1627
Commits (30d)
23
GitHub
Contributors
—
Stars
—
Circulating supply
2.83B
Supply issued
--
No hard cap

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to Gram (prev. Toncoin) yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.