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Stellar

XLM
$0.17918424h -0.21% · 7d -8.83% · 30d -2.25%

Last scan 2d ago

43Confidence-2.4

Moderately bearish (57% confidence)

Why this score

Stellar’s Confidence Score slipped from 45.8 to 43.4 out of 100, driven primarily by weak technical trends and on-chain network activity falling 17% below its 30-day average. While bright spots like favorable news coverage (score of 69) and strong derivatives metrics (77) provide support alongside an oversold RSI of 25.7, the asset remains heavily weighed down by trading 8.5% below its 50-day moving average and 68% off its 5-year high. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether falling network activity can stabilize to help the price rebound from these oversold conditions.

Bullish
  • Oversold RSIRSI(14) at 25.7 — historically a mean-reversion zone.
  • Shipping regularly5 tagged releases in the last 90 days.
  • Positive news flowRecent coverage across 33 stories leans bullish.
Bearish
  • MACD below signalHistogram -0.00 — short-term trend is down.
  • Below 50-day averagePrice is -8.5% below the 50-day moving average.
  • Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
  • Network activity fallingOn-chain activity is 17% below its 30-day average.
Risks
  • Deep drawdownTrading 68% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum2907%42
Risk (inverted)1395%50
Network usage1744%15
Development930%45
News sentiment1744%69
Social sentimentn/a
Derivatives positioning698%est77
Tokenomics581%0

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

2d ago

Stellar’s (XLM) overall confidence score slipped slightly from 45.8 to 43.4, driven primarily by a steep 29.7-point drop in Network usage (45 to 15) alongside pullbacks in Derivatives positioning (91 to 77) and Momentum (52 to 42). Offsetting these declines, News sentiment surged 28.3 points from 41 to 69, Development gained 14.6 points (30 to 45), and inverted Risk improved slightly from 47 to 50. This matters because the sharp drop in on-chain network activity and cooling market positioning highlight underlying operational headwinds, even as headlines surrounding tokenization bolster sentiment and developer activity picks up.

  • • Momentum down 9.6 points (52 → 42)
  • • Risk (inverted) up 2.3 points (47 → 50)
  • • Network usage down 29.7 points (45 → 15)
  • • Development up 14.6 points (30 → 45)
  • • News sentiment up 28.3 points (41 → 69)
  • • Derivatives positioning down 14.3 points (91 → 77)

AI confidence meter

Leaning bearish51%
Data quality
Fair
Category coverage
88%
Conflicting signals
3
Missing data
Social sentiment
  • • 7 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • • 3 of 5 data feeds responded
  • • 3 signals contradict the overall read
  • • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Stellar displays mean-reversion potential with an oversold RSI(14) at 25.7 alongside a positive news sub-score of 69 supported by 33 bullish stories. Development activity remains active with 5 tagged releases over the last 90 days, while the derivatives sub-score reflects underlying interest at 77.

Bear case

Network fundamentals are severely depressed with an on-chain activity decline of 17% below its 30-day average, pulling the network sub-score to 15 and tokenomics to 0. The overall technical structure is damaged, featuring a MACD histogram of -0.00, a position 8.5% below the 50-day moving average, and a deep 68% drawdown from its 5-year high.

Balanced read: The evidence currently favours the bear case due to a low overall confidence score of 43.4/100 and declining on-chain network usage. A sustained move reclaiming the 50-day moving average along with a rebound in network activity above its 30-day average would be required to flip the bias toward the bulls.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
extremeVolume in the bottom 1% of its history6d ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.5 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.

notableConfidence Score moved +8.0 points in a single scan14d ago

The score went from 47.8 to 55.8. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

extremeVolume in the top 1% of its history20d ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 99.7th percentile of the last 2.5 years. Heavy participation usually accompanies a real move rather than drift.

notableConfidence Score moved +11.4 points in a single scan21d ago

The score went from 46.5 to 57.9. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

notableConfidence Score moved -9.8 points in a single scan23d ago

The score went from 60.0 to 50.2. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

extremeVolume in the top 1% of its history24d ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 99.7th percentile of the last 2.5 years. Heavy participation usually accompanies a real move rather than drift.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Fear — Down 2.3% over 30 days; 68% below the running high; Realised volatility 65%

What XLM is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d -0.30 · 90d -0.16 · Weak inverse relationship
Gold30d -0.04 · 90d 0.31 · Moving independently
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d 0.25 · 90d 0.25 · Weak positive relationship
Silver30d 0.15 · 90d 0.32 · Moving independently
Nasdaq 10030d 0.40 · 90d 0.36 · Moderate positive relationship
S&P 50030d 0.33 · 90d 0.36 · Weak positive relationship
US Dollar Index30d -0.09 · 90d -0.19 · Moving independently

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change -43.0%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
25.7
Oversold territory
MACD hist
—
SMA 50
$0.195802
SMA 200
$0.1823
Volatility 30d
76%
ATR 14
—
Bollinger %B
—
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
1.56M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.1349
Commits (30d)
—
GitHub
Contributors
—
Stars
—
Circulating supply
35.2B
Supply issued
--
No hard cap

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to Stellar yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.