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Stellar

XLM
$0.17889424h -1.03% · 7d -10.50% · 30d +3.86%

Last scan 2d ago

59Confidence+1.0

Slightly bullish (59% confidence)

Why this score

Stellar’s Confidence Score ticked up slightly to 58.5 out of 100 (from 57.5 in the previous scan), primarily driven by a solid momentum score of 70 as the price held 1.5% above its 50-day moving average. Positive news coverage across 34 recent stories and high derivatives activity (88/100) helped lift the score, even though XLM remains in a steep 68% drawdown from its 5-year high. However, the score is held back by a severe 74% drop in code commits over the last 30 days, pushing the development sub-score down to a weak 24/100. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether developer commit activity can recover from that 74% decline to rebuild confidence in the project's long-term building momentum.

Bullish
  • MACD above signalHistogram 0.00 — short-term trend is up.
  • Above 50-day averagePrice is 1.5% above the 50-day moving average.
  • Above 200-day averageLong-term trend structure remains intact.
  • Positive news flowRecent coverage across 34 stories leans bullish.
Bearish
  • Development slowingCommits down 74% versus the prior 30 days.
Risks
  • Deep drawdownTrading 68% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum3247%70
Risk (inverted)1558%48
Network usagen/a
Development1039%24
News sentiment1948%69
Social sentiment779%est69
Derivatives positioning779%est88
Tokenomics649%0

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

2d ago

Stellar’s overall confidence score edged up slightly from 57.5 to 58.5 since the previous scan, accompanied by zero new anomaly flags. The shift was primarily driven by a 6.3-point gain in news sentiment from 63 to 69, though this was offset by a 11.8-point decline in derivatives positioning from 99 down to 88. This matters because it indicates a slight cool-down in leveraged futures market exposure even as broader media sentiment surrounding the asset sees a modest improvement.

  • News sentiment up 6.3 points (63 → 69)
  • Derivatives positioning down 11.8 points (99 → 88)

AI confidence meter

Leaning bullish70%
Data quality
Good
Category coverage
88%
Conflicting signals
1
Missing data
Network usage
  • 7 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • 4 of 5 data feeds responded
  • 1 signal contradict the overall read
  • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Stellar demonstrates solid technical momentum with high derivatives (88) and momentum (70) sub-scores, supported by price trading 1.5% above its 50-day average and holding above its 200-day average. Furthermore, market sentiment remains positive with a news sub-score of 69 based on 34 bullish-leaning stories and a short-term upward trend signaled by the MACD.

Bear case

Network development faces a severe slowdown, evidenced by a low development score of 24 and a 74% drop in commits over the prior 30 days. Additionally, XLM carries significant long-term risk with a tokenomics sub-score of 0 and a deep 68% drawdown from its 5-year high.

Balanced read: The evidence currently favours the bullish stance, supported by an overall confidence score of 58.5/100 and strong short- and long-term moving average structures. A breakdown below the 50-day moving average combined with continued decay in the 24 development sub-score would flip the perspective to bearish.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Neutral Up 3.9% over 30 days; 68% below the running high; Realised volatility 78%

What XLM is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d 0.06 · 90d -0.18 · Moving independently
Gold30d 0.12 · 90d 0.26 · Moving independently
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d -0.07 · 90d 0.05 · Moving independently
Silver30d 0.15 · 90d 0.18 · Moving independently
Nasdaq 10030d -0.08 · 90d 0.16 · Moving independently
S&P 50030d -0.14 · 90d 0.19 · Moving independently
US Dollar Index30d 0.10 · 90d -0.07 · Moving independently

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change -50.0%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
62
Neutral range
MACD hist
SMA 50
$0.175948
SMA 200
$0.174333
Volatility 30d
67.3%
ATR 14
Bollinger %B
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
1.8M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.2631
Commits (30d)
26
GitHub
Contributors
Stars
Circulating supply
34.69B
Supply issued
--
No hard cap

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to Stellar yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.