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NEAR Protocol

NEAR
$4.6424h -6.70% · 7d -21.32% · 30d +23.18%

Last scan 17h ago

48Confidence-8.4

Slightly bearish (52% confidence)

Why this score

NEAR Protocol’s Confidence Score dropped from 56.2 to 47.8 out of 100 as weakening short-term momentum and falling network usage pulled down the overall outlook. Although the price remains 20.0% above its 50-day moving average, a negative MACD histogram (-0.13) and a 14% drop in on-chain activity below its 30-day average point to slowing adoption, compounded by a high 148% annualized volatility. Development remains active with 7 software releases over the last 90 days, though an expanding backlog—16 new issues opened versus 6 closed in 30 days—presents minor operational drag. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether on-chain network activity can rebound to help stabilize short-term momentum.

Bullish
  • Above 50-day averagePrice is 20.0% above the 50-day moving average.
  • Above 200-day averageLong-term trend structure remains intact.
  • Shipping regularly7 tagged releases in the last 90 days.
Bearish
  • MACD below signalHistogram -0.13 — short-term trend is down.
  • Network activity fallingOn-chain activity is 14% below its 30-day average.
  • Issue backlog growing6 issues closed against 16 opened in 30 days.
Risks
  • Elevated volatility30-day annualised volatility is 148%.

Score breakdown

Momentum2907%66
Risk (inverted)1395%22
Network usage1744%21
Development930%44
News sentiment1744%58
Social sentimentn/a
Derivatives positioning698%est27
Tokenomics581%100

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

17h ago

Since the previous scan, NEAR Protocol's Confidence Score fell by 8.4 points from 56.2 to 47.8, triggering a single-scan anomaly flag. The overall score reduction was primarily driven by a steep 53.5-point decline in Derivatives positioning from 81 to 27, alongside an 18.7-point decrease in Network usage from 40 to 21. Momentum and Development categories also experienced minor pullbacks, moving from 69 to 66 and 46 to 44, respectively. These metrics matter because they indicate a sharp, simultaneous contraction in both market leverage and underlying network activity over a short window.

  • • Momentum down 2.8 points (69 → 66)
  • • Network usage down 18.7 points (40 → 21)
  • • Development down 2.1 points (46 → 44)
  • • Derivatives positioning down 53.5 points (81 → 27)

AI confidence meter

Neutral44%
Data quality
Fair
Category coverage
88%
Conflicting signals
3
Missing data
Social sentiment
  • • 7 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • • 3 of 5 data feeds responded
  • • 3 signals contradict the overall read
  • • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

NEAR Protocol displays positive trend structure, trading 20.0% above its 50-day moving average while maintaining a position above its 200-day moving average. Development remains steady with 7 tagged releases in the last 90 days, supporting a momentum sub-score of 66 and a perfect tokenomics score of 100.

Bear case

Network activity is deteriorating, sitting 14% below its 30-day average alongside a low network sub-score of 21 and a weak derivatives score of 27. Additionally, short-term momentum is negative with a MACD histogram of -0.13, a growing issue backlog (16 opened versus 6 closed in 30 days), and high annualized volatility of 148%.

Balanced read: The evidence currently favours the bear case, driven by falling network usage, short-term MACD weakness, and a sharp -8.4 point drop in the overall confidence score down to 47.8/100. A sustained turnaround in on-chain activity and a positive MACD crossover would flip the outlook toward the bulls.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
notableConfidence Score moved -8.4 points in a single scan17h ago

The score went from 56.2 to 47.8. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

extremeVolatility near a multi-year high5d ago

30-day annualised volatility of 168% sits at the 100.0th percentile of the last 2.6 years. Position sizing matters more than direction at this level.

extremeVolatility near a multi-year high5d ago

30-day annualised volatility of 172% sits at the 100.0th percentile of the last 2.6 years. Position sizing matters more than direction at this level.

rareVolatility near a multi-year high8d ago

30-day annualised volatility of 157% sits at the 98.5th percentile of the last 2.6 years. Position sizing matters more than direction at this level.

notableConfidence Score moved -8.4 points in a single scan8d ago

The score went from 57.5 to 49.1. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

notableConfidence Score moved +8.0 points in a single scan12d ago

The score went from 49.5 to 57.5. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Euphoria — Up 23.2% over 30 days; 44% below the running high; Realised volatility 156%

What NEAR is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d -0.38 · 90d -0.14 · Weak inverse relationship
Gold30d 0.19 · 90d 0.21 · Moving independently
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d 0.41 · 90d 0.28 · Moderate positive relationship
Silver30d 0.40 · 90d 0.24 · Moderate positive relationship
Nasdaq 10030d 0.55 · 90d 0.40 · Moderate positive relationship
S&P 50030d 0.38 · 90d 0.37 · Weak positive relationship
US Dollar Index30d -0.04 · 90d -0.14 · Moving independently

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change +105.0%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
47.3
Neutral range
MACD hist
—
SMA 50
$3.86
SMA 200
$2.30
Volatility 30d
147.7%
ATR 14
—
Bollinger %B
—
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
1.59M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.1419
Commits (30d)
—
GitHub
Contributors
—
Stars
—
Circulating supply
1.31B
Supply issued
--
No hard cap

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to NEAR Protocol yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.