Natural gas
NGLast scan 2h ago
Moderately bearish (62% confidence)
Why this score
Natural Gas saw its Confidence Score drop slightly from 38.8 to 37.8 out of 100, driven by a weak momentum score of 33 and heavy price suppression that leaves it trading 33.2% below its 50-day moving average. Severe downward pressure has pushed the 14-day RSI to an extremely oversold level of 16.7 and elevated 30-day annualized volatility to 123%, while a negative MACD histogram (-0.15) confirms the short-term trend remains down. Despite a relatively strong news sub-score of 62, the long-term trend structure remains broken below the 200-day moving average and 60% off its 5-year high. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether the historically oversold RSI of 16.7 sparks a mean-reversion rebound or if the negative MACD momentum continues to dominate.
- Oversold RSIRSI(14) at 16.7 — historically a mean-reversion zone.
- MACD below signalHistogram -0.15 — short-term trend is down.
- Below 50-day averagePrice is -33.2% below the 50-day moving average.
- Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
- Elevated volatility30-day annualised volatility is 123%.
- Deep drawdownTrading 60% below its 5-year high.
Score breakdown
Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.
What changed since the last scan
2h agoSince the previous scan, the Confidence Score for Natural Gas (NG) dipped slightly from 38.8 to 37.8, primarily driven by a 3.8-point drop in news sentiment from 66 to 62. With no new anomaly flags detected, these minor movements indicate relative stability across the asset's metrics rather than a sharp disruption. This modest decline in news sentiment reflects a slight cooling in headline tone, but the overall score shifted very little, suggesting minimal change in overall momentum.
- • News sentiment down 3.8 points (66 → 62)
AI confidence meter
- Data quality
- Limited
- Category coverage
- 38%
- Conflicting signals
- 1
- Missing data
- Network usage, Development, Social sentiment, Derivatives positioning, Tokenomics
- • 3 of 8 score categories had data this scan
- • 2 of 5 data feeds responded
- • 1 signal contradict the overall read
- • Score is 12 points off neutral
Bull case vs bear case
Both cases built from the same evidenceBull case
Natural Gas presents a potential mean-reversion opportunity as its 14-day RSI has dropped to an extreme oversold level of 16.7. Additionally, news sentiment offers a modest positive counterweight with a sub-score of 62, suggesting underlying narrative support despite technical distress.
Bear case
The asset is locked in a heavy downtrend, trading 33.2% below its 50-day moving average, below its 200-day average, and registering a negative MACD histogram of -0.15. Significant risk parameters reinforce this bearish stance, including an overall confidence score of 37.8/100, a low risk sub-score of 17, an elevated 30-day annualized volatility of 123%, and a steep 60% drawdown from its 5-year high.
Balanced read: Current evidence heavily favors the bears due to broken technical trend structures, a weak momentum sub-score of 33, and a deep 60% drawdown from 5-year highs. A sustained recovery above the 50-day moving average driven by mean-reversion from the 16.7 RSI level would be required to flip the outlook bullish.
Anomalies detected
All signals →The score went from 28.0 to 38.9. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.
Market mood timeline
Last 45 days · from momentum and volatilityToday: Panic — Down 46.5% over 30 days; 60% below the running high; Realised volatility 130%
What NG is moving with
Full market structure →Price history
Daily closes · CoinbaseTechnical indicators
Network & development
Score over time
Related news
No headlines tied to Natural gas yet.
Missing from this report
- Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
- Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
- Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
- ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
- Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API