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Natural gas

NG
$9.6824h +5.39% · 7d -16.97% · 30d -46.50%

Last scan 2h ago

38Confidence-1.0

Moderately bearish (62% confidence)

Why this score

Natural Gas saw its Confidence Score drop slightly from 38.8 to 37.8 out of 100, driven by a weak momentum score of 33 and heavy price suppression that leaves it trading 33.2% below its 50-day moving average. Severe downward pressure has pushed the 14-day RSI to an extremely oversold level of 16.7 and elevated 30-day annualized volatility to 123%, while a negative MACD histogram (-0.15) confirms the short-term trend remains down. Despite a relatively strong news sub-score of 62, the long-term trend structure remains broken below the 200-day moving average and 60% off its 5-year high. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether the historically oversold RSI of 16.7 sparks a mean-reversion rebound or if the negative MACD momentum continues to dominate.

Bullish
  • Oversold RSIRSI(14) at 16.7 — historically a mean-reversion zone.
Bearish
  • MACD below signalHistogram -0.15 — short-term trend is down.
  • Below 50-day averagePrice is -33.2% below the 50-day moving average.
  • Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
Risks
  • Elevated volatility30-day annualised volatility is 123%.
  • Deep drawdownTrading 60% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum4808%33
Risk (inverted)2308%17
Network usagen/a
Developmentn/a
News sentiment2885%62
Social sentimentn/a
Derivatives positioningn/a
Tokenomicsn/a

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

2h ago

Since the previous scan, the Confidence Score for Natural Gas (NG) dipped slightly from 38.8 to 37.8, primarily driven by a 3.8-point drop in news sentiment from 66 to 62. With no new anomaly flags detected, these minor movements indicate relative stability across the asset's metrics rather than a sharp disruption. This modest decline in news sentiment reflects a slight cooling in headline tone, but the overall score shifted very little, suggesting minimal change in overall momentum.

  • • News sentiment down 3.8 points (66 → 62)

AI confidence meter

Leaning bearish43%
Data quality
Limited
Category coverage
38%
Conflicting signals
1
Missing data
Network usage, Development, Social sentiment, Derivatives positioning, Tokenomics
  • • 3 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • • 2 of 5 data feeds responded
  • • 1 signal contradict the overall read
  • • Score is 12 points off neutral

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Natural Gas presents a potential mean-reversion opportunity as its 14-day RSI has dropped to an extreme oversold level of 16.7. Additionally, news sentiment offers a modest positive counterweight with a sub-score of 62, suggesting underlying narrative support despite technical distress.

Bear case

The asset is locked in a heavy downtrend, trading 33.2% below its 50-day moving average, below its 200-day average, and registering a negative MACD histogram of -0.15. Significant risk parameters reinforce this bearish stance, including an overall confidence score of 37.8/100, a low risk sub-score of 17, an elevated 30-day annualized volatility of 123%, and a steep 60% drawdown from its 5-year high.

Balanced read: Current evidence heavily favors the bears due to broken technical trend structures, a weak momentum sub-score of 33, and a deep 60% drawdown from 5-year highs. A sustained recovery above the 50-day moving average driven by mean-reversion from the 16.7 RSI level would be required to flip the outlook bullish.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
notableConfidence Score moved +10.9 points in a single scan20d ago

The score went from 28.0 to 38.9. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Panic — Down 46.5% over 30 days; 60% below the running high; Realised volatility 130%

What NG is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d — · 90d — · Not enough overlapping data
Gold30d — · 90d — · Not enough overlapping data
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d — · 90d — · Not enough overlapping data
Silver30d — · 90d — · Not enough overlapping data
Nasdaq 10030d — · 90d — · Not enough overlapping data
S&P 50030d — · 90d — · Not enough overlapping data
US Dollar Index30d — · 90d — · Not enough overlapping data

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change -3.7%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
16.7
Oversold territory
MACD hist
—
SMA 50
$5.86
SMA 200
$7.05
Volatility 30d
122.9%
ATR 14
—
Bollinger %B
—
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Network activity
—
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
—
Commits (30d)
—
GitHub
Contributors
—
Stars
—
Circulating supply
—
Supply issued
--
No hard cap

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to Natural gas yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.