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Monero

XMR
$510.9024h +2.07% · 7d +16.91% · 30d +41.00%

Last scan 5h ago

61Confidence-5.1

Moderately bullish (61% confidence)

Why this score

Monero’s Confidence Score fell from 65.6 to 60.5 as a slump in user activity began weighing down an otherwise strong price surge. While momentum remains solid with XMR sitting 31.6% above its 50-day moving average, a low network score of 25 reflects on-chain activity dropping 11% below its 30-day average. Furthermore, an overbought RSI of 79.0 signals that recent buying pressure may be getting stretched. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether on-chain network activity can rebound to support the current price trend.

Bullish
  • MACD above signalHistogram 7.28 — short-term trend is up.
  • Above 50-day averagePrice is 31.6% above the 50-day moving average.
  • Above 200-day averageLong-term trend structure remains intact.
Bearish
  • Overbought RSIRSI(14) at 79.0 — buying may be stretched.
  • Network activity fallingOn-chain activity is 11% below its 30-day average.
Risks

Nothing flagged.

Score breakdown

Momentum3125%75
Risk (inverted)1500%72
Network usage1875%25
Development1000%51
News sentiment1875%55
Social sentimentn/a
Derivatives positioningn/a
Tokenomics625%100

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

5h ago

Since the previous scan, Monero’s overall confidence score dropped from 65.6 to 60.5, driven primarily by a steep 20.3-point decline in news sentiment from 75 to 55. Network usage also fell 4.4 points from 30 to 25, while the inverted risk metric decreased 2.8 points from 75 to 72, indicating a slight increase in perceived risk. This pullback matters because it signals a simultaneous cooling in broader media sentiment and weakening on-chain activity. Despite these reduced scores, no new anomaly flags were detected during this scan.

  • Risk (inverted) down 2.8 points (75 → 72)
  • Network usage down 4.4 points (30 → 25)
  • News sentiment down 20.3 points (75 → 55)

AI confidence meter

Leaning bullish55%
Data quality
Fair
Category coverage
75%
Conflicting signals
2
Missing data
Social sentiment, Derivatives positioning
  • 6 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • 4 of 5 data feeds responded
  • 2 signals contradict the overall read
  • Score is 11 points off neutral

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Monero exhibits robust technical momentum with a 75 momentum sub-score, a positive MACD histogram of 7.28, and a price trading 31.6% above its 50-day moving average. This upward structure is anchored by a perfect tokenomics sub-score of 100, a solid risk score of 72, and price remaining intact above its 200-day moving average.

Bear case

Network fundamentals show noticeable weakness, reflected by a low network sub-score of 25 and on-chain activity falling 11% below its 30-day average. Additionally, an RSI(14) of 79.0 indicates heavily overbought conditions, suggesting recent buying pressure may be stretched.

Balanced read: The evidence currently favours the bull case due to strong technical indicators and an overall confidence score of 60.5/100. A flip to the bear side could occur if the overbought RSI of 79.0 sparks a sharp correction that further depresses on-chain activity below its 11% deficit.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
notableExchange volume spiking while on-chain activity is flat2d ago

Reported trading volume is 128% above its 30-day average, but on-chain transactions are only -21% off their own baseline. Volume that does not show up as network settlement is more likely to be exchange churn or wash trading than new money entering.

notable3 uncommon bearish conditions landed in the same scan2d ago

Individually each of these is ordinary. Together they are unusual: RSI 82 (overbought), price at the upper Bollinger band, on-chain activity 21% below baseline. Clusters matter more than any single reading because they are less likely to be noise.

notableVolatility near a multi-year low27d ago

30-day annualised volatility of 43% sits at the 2.7th percentile of the last 1.0 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.

notableVolatility near a multi-year low27d ago

30-day annualised volatility of 43% sits at the 2.7th percentile of the last 1.0 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Euphoria Up 41.0% over 30 days; 27% below the running high; Realised volatility 50%

What XMR is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d 0.24 · 90d 0.04 · Weak positive relationship
Gold30d -0.38 · 90d -0.06 · Weak inverse relationship
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d -0.19 · 90d 0.01 · Moving independently
Silver30d -0.24 · 90d 0.04 · Weak inverse relationship
Nasdaq 10030d -0.04 · 90d -0.11 · Moving independently
S&P 50030d -0.13 · 90d -0.03 · Moving independently
US Dollar Index30d 0.24 · 90d -0.02 · Weak positive relationship

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change +90.0%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
79
Overbought territory
MACD hist
SMA 50
$390.23
SMA 200
$358.67
Volatility 30d
53.1%
ATR 14
Bollinger %B
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
1.95M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.1545
Commits (30d)
100
GitHub
Contributors
Stars
Circulating supply
18.8M
Supply issued
--
No hard cap

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to Monero yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.