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Litecoin

LTC
$49.9224h -0.95% · 7d +4.32% · 30d +8.04%

Last scan 7d ago

65Confidence-1.2

Moderately bullish (65% confidence)

Why this score

Litecoin’s Confidence Score slipped slightly to 65.3 out of 100 (down from 66.5 in the previous scan) as high derivatives and tokenomics sub-scores of 94 were offset by a low development rating of 36. Short-term momentum remains positive, supported by a positive MACD histogram of 0.39, a 7.8% premium over its 50-day moving average, and a 75% surge in recent developer commits. However, the asset continues to face long-term headwinds, remaining stuck below its 200-day moving average and suffering from a steep 64% drawdown from its 5-year high. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether Litecoin can reclaim its 200-day moving average to repair its broken long-term trend structure.

Bullish
  • MACD above signalHistogram 0.39 — short-term trend is up.
  • Above 50-day averagePrice is 7.8% above the 50-day moving average.
  • Development acceleratingCommits up 75% versus the prior 30 days.
Bearish
  • Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
  • Issue backlog growing0 issues closed against 1 opened in 30 days.
Risks
  • Deep drawdownTrading 64% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum3521%62
Risk (inverted)1690%66
Network usagen/a
Development1127%36
News sentiment2113%65
Social sentimentn/a
Derivatives positioning845%est94
Tokenomics704%94

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

7d ago

Litecoin’s overall confidence score dipped slightly from 66.5 to 65.3 since the last scan due to conflicting category shifts. While Derivatives positioning surged 13.7 points (81 to 94) and Risk (inverted) rose 17.3 points (49 to 66), Momentum fell 9.7 points (72 to 62) alongside an 8.8-point drop in News sentiment (73 to 65). Crucially, a new anomaly flag indicates that LTC's trading volume has fallen into the bottom 1% of its historical record. This severe drop in spot market activity matters because it signals a lack of underlying trader participation, overshadowing the elevated activity seen in derivatives.

  • Momentum down 9.7 points (72 → 62)
  • Risk (inverted) up 17.3 points (49 → 66)
  • News sentiment down 8.8 points (73 → 65)
  • Derivatives positioning up 13.7 points (81 → 94)

AI confidence meter

Leaning bullish57%
Data quality
Fair
Category coverage
75%
Conflicting signals
2
Missing data
Network usage, Social sentiment
  • 6 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • 4 of 5 data feeds responded
  • 2 signals contradict the overall read
  • Score is 15 points off neutral

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Litecoin displays strong technical structure with its price sitting 8.0% above the 50-day moving average, trading above the 200-day moving average, and posting a positive MACD histogram of 2.04. Momentum is supported by high tokenomics (94) and derivatives (81) sub-scores, a 75% increase in development commits, and positive coverage across 31 news stories. These drivers pushed its overall Confidence Score up by +21.3 points to 66.5/100.

Bear case

Despite bullish price trends, risk remains elevated with a 30-day annualised volatility of 94% and a weak risk sub-score of 49. Additionally, development underlying the project shows friction with a low sub-score of 36 and a growing issue backlog, evidenced by 0 issues closed against 1 opened in the last 30 days.

Balanced read: The evidence currently favours the bullish side, anchored by a 72 momentum sub-score, a +21.3 Confidence Score jump to 66.5/100, and price maintaining an 8.0% gap above the 50-day moving average. This bias would flip if the elevated 94% annualized volatility triggers a sharp market drop or if the low 36 development sub-score leads to further structural slowdowns.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
extremeVolume in the bottom 1% of its history7d ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.

rareConfidence Score moved +21.3 points in a single scan8d ago

The score went from 45.2 to 66.5. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Optimistic Up 11.2% over 30 days; 20% below the running high; Realised volatility 103%

What LTC is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d 0.31 · 90d 0.06 · Weak positive relationship
Gold30d -0.01 · 90d 0.09 · Moving independently
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d 0.38 · 90d 0.25 · Weak positive relationship
Silver30d 0.02 · 90d 0.11 · Moving independently
Nasdaq 10030d 0.55 · 90d 0.47 · Moderate positive relationship
S&P 50030d 0.63 · 90d 0.51 · Moderate positive relationship
US Dollar Index30d 0.29 · 90d -0.10 · Weak positive relationship

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change -56.0%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
67
Neutral range
MACD hist
SMA 50
$46.25
SMA 200
$50.60
Volatility 30d
48.2%
ATR 14
Bollinger %B
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
1.9M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.185
Commits (30d)
7
GitHub
Contributors
Stars
Circulating supply
77.54M
Supply issued
--
Max 84M

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to Litecoin yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.