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Litecoin

LTC
$59.8424h -3.17% · 7d -13.25% · 30d +11.29%

Last scan 5d ago

53Confidence-11.2

Slightly bullish (53% confidence)

Why this score

Litecoin's Confidence Score fell from 64.2 to 53.0 out of 100, pulled down by a weak network sub-score of 33, zero recorded development activity, and a short-term trend decline reflected in a negative MACD histogram of -1.55. Despite these headwinds and a 56% drawdown from its 5-year high, LTC retains high sub-scores in derivatives (95) and tokenomics (94) while staying 1.2% above its 50-day moving average. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether the oversold RSI reading of 30.3 triggers a technical bounce to reverse the short-term downtrend.

Bullish
  • Oversold RSIRSI(14) at 30.3 — historically a mean-reversion zone.
  • Above 50-day averagePrice is 1.2% above the 50-day moving average.
  • Above 200-day averageLong-term trend structure remains intact.
Bearish
  • MACD below signalHistogram -1.55 — short-term trend is down.
  • Issue backlog growing1 issues closed against 5 opened in 30 days.
Risks
  • Deep drawdownTrading 56% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum2907%59
Risk (inverted)1395%59
Network usage1744%33
Development930%0
News sentiment1744%57
Social sentimentn/a
Derivatives positioning698%est95
Tokenomics581%94

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

5d ago

Litecoin's Confidence Score dropped sharply by 11.2 points from 64.2 to 53.0, triggering a single-scan anomaly flag. This decline was primarily driven by Development plunging 38.0 points to 0, Network usage falling 24.3 points to 33, and Momentum dropping 18.1 points to 59. Modest gains in Derivatives positioning (up 5.0 to 95), News sentiment (up 5.5 to 57), and inverted Risk (up 4.0 to 59) failed to counter the downward trajectory. This shift matters because severe pullbacks in developer activity and on-chain network usage indicate a notable cooling of Litecoin's underlying fundamental and technical momentum.

  • • Momentum down 18.1 points (77 → 59)
  • • Risk (inverted) up 4.0 points (54 → 59)
  • • Network usage down 24.3 points (57 → 33)
  • • Development down 38.0 points (38 → 0)
  • • News sentiment up 5.5 points (51 → 57)
  • • Derivatives positioning up 5.0 points (90 → 95)

AI confidence meter

Neutral50%
Data quality
Fair
Category coverage
88%
Conflicting signals
2
Missing data
Social sentiment
  • • 7 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • • 3 of 5 data feeds responded
  • • 2 signals contradict the overall read
  • • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Litecoin demonstrates structural support with robust derivatives (95) and tokenomics (94) sub-scores. Additionally, an oversold RSI(14) of 30.3 signals a potential mean-reversion zone, while price maintains position 1.2% above its 50-day moving average and remains above its 200-day average.

Bear case

Development health is a major concern with a sub-score of 0 and an expanding issue backlog of only 1 closed versus 5 opened over 30 days. Furthermore, short-term momentum is dragging with a negative MACD histogram of -1.55, a deep 56% drawdown from its 5-year high, and a sharp 11.2-point single-scan drop in its overall confidence score to 53.0.

Balanced read: The evidence currently slightly favors the bullish case given that price remains above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages alongside high derivative (95) and tokenomics (94) scores. A breakdown below these key moving averages combined with persistent zero development activity and a negative MACD histogram (-1.55) would flip the outlook decisively to the bear side.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
notableConfidence Score moved -11.2 points in a single scan5d ago

The score went from 64.2 to 53.0. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

extremeVolume in the top 1% of its history21d ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 99.6th percentile of the last 2.5 years. Heavy participation usually accompanies a real move rather than drift.

extremeVolume in the top 1% of its history23d ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 99.9th percentile of the last 2.5 years. Heavy participation usually accompanies a real move rather than drift.

notableExchange volume spiking while on-chain activity is flat23d ago

Reported trading volume is 85% above its 30-day average, but on-chain transactions are only -7% off their own baseline. Volume that does not show up as network settlement is more likely to be exchange churn or wash trading than new money entering.

extremeVolume in the top 1% of its history24d ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 100.0th percentile of the last 2.5 years. Heavy participation usually accompanies a real move rather than drift.

rare12.9% daily move — larger than 98.8% of days on record24d ago

Moves this size have happened on roughly 1.2% of days in the last 2.5 years. Large single-day moves often mark either the start or the exhaustion of a trend.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Neutral — Up 11.3% over 30 days; 56% below the running high; Realised volatility 79%

What LTC is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d -0.33 · 90d -0.16 · Weak inverse relationship
Gold30d -0.10 · 90d 0.18 · Moving independently
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d 0.19 · 90d 0.14 · Moving independently
Silver30d 0.18 · 90d 0.25 · Moving independently
Nasdaq 10030d 0.38 · 90d 0.20 · Weak positive relationship
S&P 50030d 0.29 · 90d 0.20 · Weak positive relationship
US Dollar Index30d -0.15 · 90d -0.13 · Moving independently

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change -38.6%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
30.3
Neutral range
MACD hist
—
SMA 50
$59.10
SMA 200
$51.73
Volatility 30d
76.4%
ATR 14
—
Bollinger %B
—
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
1.8M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.2613
Commits (30d)
—
GitHub
Contributors
—
Stars
—
Circulating supply
77.71M
Supply issued
--
Max 84M

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to Litecoin yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.