Hyperliquid
HYPELast scan 12h ago
Slightly bearish (53% confidence)
Why this score
Hyperliquid’s confidence score slipped from 49.5 to 47.7 out of 100, driven by a 14% drop in network activity below its 30-day average and short-term weakness pushing the price 7.8% below its 50-day moving average. Strong derivatives interest (scoring 81/100) and an oversold 14-day RSI of 19.9 offer potential support, though significant future dilution risk keeps the tokenomics sub-score at 0 with only 22% of the max supply currently in circulation. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether network activity stabilizes enough to turn around the negative short-term momentum indicated by the negative MACD histogram (-1.02).
- Oversold RSIRSI(14) at 19.9 — historically a mean-reversion zone.
- Above 200-day averageLong-term trend structure remains intact.
- MACD below signalHistogram -1.02 — short-term trend is down.
- Below 50-day averagePrice is -7.8% below the 50-day moving average.
- Network activity fallingOn-chain activity is 14% below its 30-day average.
- Future dilutionOnly 22% of maximum supply is in circulation.
Score breakdown
Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.
What changed since the last scan
12h agoHyperliquid’s overall Confidence Score slipped slightly from 49.5 to 47.7, pulled down primarily by steep drops in news sentiment (falling 13.9 points to 55) and derivatives positioning (falling 11.6 points to 81). Offsetting these declines, momentum gained 2.5 points to reach 48, while the inverted risk metric rose 4.7 points from 71 to 76. Additionally, the dashboard triggered two new anomaly flags as trading volume hit the bottom 1% of its historical range and volatility dropped near a multi-year low. This matters because the combination of weakening derivatives interest, lower news sentiment, and historically suppressed volume and volatility highlights a significant contraction in market activity and trader participation.
- • Momentum up 2.5 points (46 → 48)
- • Risk (inverted) up 4.7 points (71 → 76)
- • News sentiment down 13.9 points (69 → 55)
- • Derivatives positioning down 11.6 points (93 → 81)
AI confidence meter
- Data quality
- Fair
- Category coverage
- 75%
- Conflicting signals
- 2
- Missing data
- Development, Social sentiment
- • 6 of 8 score categories had data this scan
- • 3 of 5 data feeds responded
- • 2 signals contradict the overall read
- • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction
Bull case vs bear case
Both cases built from the same evidenceBull case
Hyperliquid demonstrates long-term technical resilience as its price remains above the 200-day moving average, backed by a strong derivatives sub-score of 81 and a solid risk rating of 76. Furthermore, an oversold RSI(14) at 19.9 indicates that the asset is in a historical mean-reversion zone despite recent selling pressure.
Bear case
Tokenomics represent a major headwind with a score of 0, driven by heavy future dilution as only 22% of the maximum supply is in circulation. Near-term momentum is impaired by a MACD histogram at -1.02, price sitting 7.8% below the 50-day moving average, network activity dropping 14% below its 30-day average, and trading volume plunging into the bottom 1% of its history.
Balanced read: The evidence currently favors the bear case, reflected in the low overall confidence score of 47.7/100 and weak network sub-score of 19 alongside significant supply overhang. A reclaim of the 50-day moving average paired with volume expanding out of multi-year low volatility would be needed to turn the outlook bullish.
Anomalies detected
All signals →Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 1.1 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
30-day annualised volatility of 53% sits at the 1.0th percentile of the last 1.1 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 1.1 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 1.1 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.2th percentile of the last 1.1 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
The score went from 59.0 to 50.5. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.
Market mood timeline
Last 45 days · from momentum and volatilityToday: Neutral — Down 14.1% over 30 days; 19% below the running high; Realised volatility 56%
What HYPE is moving with
Full market structure →Price history
Daily closes · CoinbaseTechnical indicators
Network & development
Score over time
Related news
No headlines tied to Hyperliquid yet.
Missing from this report
- Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
- Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
- Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
- ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
- Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API