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Hedera

HBAR
$0.07476224h -4.31% · 7d -3.44% · 30d +9.38%

Last scan 5d ago

60Confidence-2.7

Moderately bullish (60% confidence)

Why this score

Hedera’s Confidence Score dipped from 62.6 to 59.9 out of 100, as weak tokenomics (40) and low social engagement (45) dragged down the overall score despite strong news sentiment (72 across 41 stories). In the short term, the coin shows some life with a momentum score of 63, a positive MACD, and a price trading 6.8% above its 50-day moving average. However, the long-term outlook remains cautious because HBAR is still stuck in an 80% drawdown from its 5-year high and trades below its 200-day moving average. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether HBAR can move back above its 200-day moving average to repair its long-term trend structure.

Bullish
  • MACD above signalHistogram 0.00 — short-term trend is up.
  • Above 50-day averagePrice is 6.8% above the 50-day moving average.
  • Positive news flowRecent coverage across 41 stories leans bullish.
Bearish
  • Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
Risks
  • Deep drawdownTrading 80% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum3623%63
Risk (inverted)1739%59
Network usagen/a
Developmentn/a
News sentiment2174%72
Social sentiment870%est45
Derivatives positioning870%est51
Tokenomics725%40

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

5d ago

Hedera’s (HBAR) overall confidence score decreased from 62.6 to 59.9, driven primarily by a steep 41.7-point drop in derivatives positioning (from 93 to 51) and a minor 4.0-point decline in inverted risk (from 63 to 59). Meanwhile, news sentiment improved by 11.7 points from 60 to 72, even as trading volume triggered an anomaly flag by falling into the bottom 1% of its historical range. This sudden unwind in derivatives activity paired with near-record low volume matters because it points to a significant drop in market participation and leverage, overshadowing the positive momentum in news sentiment.

  • Risk (inverted) down 4.0 points (63 → 59)
  • News sentiment up 11.7 points (60 → 72)
  • Derivatives positioning down 41.7 points (93 → 51)

AI confidence meter

Leaning bullish59%
Data quality
Fair
Category coverage
75%
Conflicting signals
1
Missing data
Network usage, Development
  • 6 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • 3 of 5 data feeds responded
  • 1 signal contradict the overall read
  • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Hedera displays positive short-term technicals with a momentum sub-score of 63, its MACD above signal, and price trading 6.8% above the 50-day moving average. News sentiment is notably strong with a sub-score of 72 across 41 bullish coverage stories. These factors push its overall confidence score to 59.9/100.

Bear case

Long-term trend structure remains broken as HBAR trades below its 200-day moving average and sits in a deep 80% drawdown from its 5-year high. Weakness is further highlighted by a tokenomics sub-score of 40, a social sub-score of 45, and an extreme volume anomaly in the bottom 1% of its history.

Balanced read: The evidence currently favors the bull case in the short term, anchored by the 59.9/100 confidence score and price holding 6.8% above the 50-day moving average. A breakdown below the 50-day average coupled with persistent bottom 1% historical volume would flip the outlook back to the bears.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
extremeVolume in the bottom 1% of its history5d ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Neutral Up 9.4% over 30 days; 80% below the running high; Realised volatility 54%

What HBAR is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d 0.13 · 90d -0.12 · Moving independently
Gold30d 0.39 · 90d 0.46 · Weak positive relationship
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d 0.14 · 90d 0.20 · Moving independently
Silver30d 0.34 · 90d 0.35 · Weak positive relationship
Nasdaq 10030d 0.10 · 90d 0.33 · Moving independently
S&P 50030d 0.14 · 90d 0.33 · Moving independently
US Dollar Index30d -0.18 · 90d -0.24 · Moving independently

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change -66.9%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
66.9
Neutral range
MACD hist
SMA 50
$0.069992
SMA 200
$0.083917
Volatility 30d
46.2%
ATR 14
Bollinger %B
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
2M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.1821
Commits (30d)
GitHub
Contributors
Stars
Circulating supply
43.83B
Supply issued
--
Max 50B

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to Hedera yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.