Hedera
HBARLast scan 15d ago
Slightly bearish (52% confidence)
Why this score
Hedera’s Confidence Score slipped from 50.6 to 48.1 out of 100, primarily because a 21% drop in on-chain usage dragged its network sub-score down to a very low 8. Despite this fundamental drag, technical momentum remains strong at 79, supported by a high derivatives score of 90 and a price holding 26.2% above its 50-day moving average. However, elevated risks (sub-score of 14), high 125% annualized volatility, and a deep 72% drawdown from its 5-year peak continue to cap overall sentiment. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether on-chain network activity can recover to support the token's current price momentum.
- MACD above signalHistogram 0.00 — short-term trend is up.
- Above 50-day averagePrice is 26.2% above the 50-day moving average.
- Above 200-day averageLong-term trend structure remains intact.
- Network activity fallingOn-chain activity is 21% below its 30-day average.
- Elevated volatility30-day annualised volatility is 125%.
- Deep drawdownTrading 72% below its 5-year high.
Score breakdown
Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.
What changed since the last scan
15d agoHedera’s overall confidence score fell from 50.6 to 48.1 since the last scan, driven mostly by a steep 8.6-point drop in network usage from 16 to 8. This matters because the sharp decline in network usage signals a sudden contraction in on-chain activity, while derivatives positioning also cooled off 5.4 points from 96 to 90. Additionally, news sentiment softened by 2.1 points from 52 to 50, reflecting a minor uptick in broader market caution. Despite these downward pulls across multiple categories, no new anomaly flags were triggered in this scan.
- • Network usage down 8.6 points (16 → 8)
- • News sentiment down 2.1 points (52 → 50)
- • Derivatives positioning down 5.4 points (96 → 90)
AI confidence meter
- Data quality
- Fair
- Category coverage
- 75%
- Conflicting signals
- 1
- Missing data
- Development, Social sentiment
- • 6 of 8 score categories had data this scan
- • 3 of 5 data feeds responded
- • 1 signal contradict the overall read
- • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction
Bull case vs bear case
Both cases built from the same evidenceBull case
Hedera displays strong technical momentum, supported by a high derivatives sub-score of 90 and a momentum sub-score of 79. Its price is currently 26.2% above the 50-day moving average, holding above its 200-day moving average with a MACD above the signal line indicating an intact upward trend structure.
Bear case
Fundamental metrics reveal severe operational weaknesses, highlighted by a network sub-score of 8 and on-chain activity dropping 21% below its 30-day average. Risk parameters are equally concerning, given a risk sub-score of 14, elevated 30-day annualised volatility of 125%, and a price that remains 72% below its 5-year high.
Balanced read: The evidence currently favours the bear case, as a low overall confidence score of 48.1/100 and a weak network sub-score of 8 undermine the recent technical price strength. A reversal in fundamental adoption, marked by on-chain activity rising back above its 30-day average alongside reduced volatility, would be needed to shift the outlook toward the bulls.
Anomalies detected
All signals →The score went from 63.5 to 54.6. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 100.0th percentile of the last 2.5 years. Heavy participation usually accompanies a real move rather than drift.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.5 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
Reported trading volume is 89% above its 30-day average, but on-chain transactions are only -6% off their own baseline. Volume that does not show up as network settlement is more likely to be exchange churn or wash trading than new money entering.
Reported trading volume is 145% above its 30-day average, but on-chain transactions are only -5% off their own baseline. Volume that does not show up as network settlement is more likely to be exchange churn or wash trading than new money entering.
Reported trading volume is 196% above its 30-day average, but on-chain transactions are only -13% off their own baseline. Volume that does not show up as network settlement is more likely to be exchange churn or wash trading than new money entering.
Market mood timeline
Last 45 days · from momentum and volatilityToday: Optimistic — Up 30.8% over 30 days; 72% below the running high; Realised volatility 146%
What HBAR is moving with
Full market structure →Price history
Daily closes · CoinbaseTechnical indicators
Network & development
Score over time
Related news
No headlines tied to Hedera yet.
Missing from this report
- Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
- Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
- Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
- ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
- Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API