Dogecoin
DOGELast scan 18h ago
Slightly bearish (53% confidence)
Why this score
Dogecoin’s Confidence Score slipped from 50.4 to 46.9 out of 100, primarily driven by severe weakness in underlying activity, including developer commits plunging 89% and on-chain network activity falling 22% below its 30-day average. While a perfect tokenomics score of 100 and a price sitting 8.9% above the 50-day moving average offer brief support, DOGE remains in a deep 82% drawdown from its five-year high and faces negative short-term momentum from a bearish MACD signal. Furthermore, a long-term release absence of 640 days leaves its development sub-score near rock bottom at 1. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether Dogecoin can reclaim its 200-day moving average to repair its broken long-term trend structure.
- Above 50-day averagePrice is 8.9% above the 50-day moving average.
- MACD below signalHistogram -0.00 — short-term trend is down.
- Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
- Network activity fallingOn-chain activity is 22% below its 30-day average.
- Development slowingCommits down 89% versus the prior 30 days.
- No release in 6 monthsLast tagged release was 640 days ago.
- Issue backlog growing0 issues closed against 4 opened in 30 days.
- Contributor churnOnly 25% of last month's contributors are still committing.
- Deep drawdownTrading 82% below its 5-year high.
Score breakdown
Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.
What changed since the last scan
18h agoDogecoin's confidence score decreased from 50.4 to 46.9 since the previous scan, driven by pullbacks across all tracked categories. The most notable drops occurred in news sentiment, which fell 14.0 points from 78 to 64, and derivatives positioning, which dropped 9.9 points from 99 to 90, alongside a minor 2.3-point decline in momentum from 58 to 56. This matters because the metrics point to cooling speculative positioning and softening sentiment in response to broader geopolitical and macroeconomic risk-off headlines. No new anomaly flags were triggered during this update.
- • Momentum down 2.3 points (58 → 56)
- • News sentiment down 14.0 points (78 → 64)
- • Derivatives positioning down 9.9 points (99 → 90)
AI confidence meter
- Data quality
- Good
- Category coverage
- 88%
- Conflicting signals
- 1
- Missing data
- Social sentiment
- • 7 of 8 score categories had data this scan
- • 4 of 5 data feeds responded
- • 1 signal contradict the overall read
- • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction
Bull case vs bear case
Both cases built from the same evidenceBull case
Dogecoin displays robust strength in its derivatives sub-score at 90 and a perfect tokenomics sub-score of 100, paired with a solid news sub-score of 64. Furthermore, its price trades 8.9% above the 50-day moving average with momentum holding a sub-score of 56.
Bear case
The asset faces critical weakness in fundamental activity, marked by a development sub-score of 1 and a network sub-score of 6, as commits dropped 89% and on-chain activity fell 22% below its 30-day average. Technical indicators reflect a broader trend breakdown, with the price sitting below its 200-day moving average, 640 days passing since the last tagged release, and a heavy 82% drawdown from its 5-year high.
Balanced read: With an overall confidence score of 46.9/100, the evidence currently favors the bear case due to collapsing developer engagement and depressed network usage. A sustained recovery above the 200-day moving average combined with renewed on-chain activity would be needed to flip the narrative toward the bull case.
Anomalies detected
All signals →Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
Individually each of these is ordinary. Together they are unusual: RSI 77 (overbought), on-chain activity 32% below baseline, development sharply slowing. Clusters matter more than any single reading because they are less likely to be noise.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.4th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
The score went from 55.3 to 43.8. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
30-day annualised volatility of 35% sits at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.
Market mood timeline
Last 45 days · from momentum and volatilityToday: Neutral — Up 16.7% over 30 days; 82% below the running high; Realised volatility 78%
What DOGE is moving with
Full market structure →Price history
Daily closes · CoinbaseTechnical indicators
Network & development
Score over time
Related news
No headlines tied to Dogecoin yet.
Missing from this report
- Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
- Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
- Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
- ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
- Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API