Dogecoin
DOGELast scan 6h ago
Moderately bearish (57% confidence)
Why this score
Dogecoin’s Confidence Score slipped to 42.9 out of 100 (down from 46.8 in the previous scan), primarily driven by broken technical price structures and network activity falling 41% below its 30-day average. Despite a high derivatives sub-score of 88 and a 100% surge in recent code commits, DOGE remains under heavy pressure while trading 9.2% below its 50-day moving average and 83% below its 5-year high. Additionally, underlying metric drag persists due to a network sub-score of 0 and zero retained code contributors from last month. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether the heavily oversold 14-day RSI of 20.4 triggers a short-term mean-reversion bounce.
- Oversold RSIRSI(14) at 20.4 — historically a mean-reversion zone.
- Development acceleratingCommits up 100% versus the prior 30 days.
- MACD below signalHistogram -0.00 — short-term trend is down.
- Below 50-day averagePrice is -9.2% below the 50-day moving average.
- Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
- Network activity fallingOn-chain activity is 41% below its 30-day average.
- No release in 6 monthsLast tagged release was 687 days ago.
- Contributor churnOnly 0% of last month's contributors are still committing.
- Deep drawdownTrading 83% below its 5-year high.
Score breakdown
Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.
What changed since the last scan
6h agoDogecoin’s overall confidence score fell from 46.8 to 42.9 since the last scan, primarily driven by a sharp drop in on-chain activity. Network usage plunged 19.7 points down to 0, accompanied by lighter declines in news sentiment (down 9.6 points to 59) and derivatives positioning (down 7.5 points to 88). Offsetting some of this weakness, development activity rebounded by 20.0 points from 0 to 20, while the inverted risk metric improved by 3.0 points to 51. This net score decline matters because the complete drop-off in active network usage weighs down Dogecoin's overall evaluation, overshadowing the uptick in developer contributions.
- • Risk (inverted) up 3.0 points (48 → 51)
- • Network usage down 19.7 points (20 → 0)
- • Development up 20.0 points (0 → 20)
- • News sentiment down 9.6 points (69 → 59)
- • Derivatives positioning down 7.5 points (95 → 88)
AI confidence meter
- Data quality
- Good
- Category coverage
- 100%
- Conflicting signals
- 2
- Missing data
- None
- • 8 of 8 score categories had data this scan
- • 4 of 5 data feeds responded
- • 2 signals contradict the overall read
- • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction
Bull case vs bear case
Both cases built from the same evidenceBull case
Dogecoin displays strong derivatives (88) and tokenomics (100) sub-scores, while an RSI(14) of 20.4 places it in an oversold mean-reversion zone. Furthermore, developer commits have surged by 100% compared to the prior 30 days, suggesting short-term technical recovery potential.
Bear case
Fundamental network and technical indicators remain heavily depressed, evidenced by a network sub-score of 0 as on-chain activity drops 41% below its 30-day average and contributor retention sits at 0%. Price sits -9.2% below the 50-day moving average and below the 200-day average, contributing to an 83% drawdown from its 5-year high.
Balanced read: The current evidence favours the bear case, as reflected by the low 42.9/100 confidence score, broken long-term trend structure, and a 41% drop in network activity. A sustained price recovery above the 50-day moving average combined with rebounding on-chain participation would be required to flip momentum to the bulls.
Anomalies detected
All signals →Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.6 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.6 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.6 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
The score went from 60.2 to 44.1. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.5 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
The score went from 55.7 to 44.5. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.
Market mood timeline
Last 45 days · from momentum and volatilityToday: Fear — Down 8.7% over 30 days; 83% below the running high; Realised volatility 47%
What DOGE is moving with
Full market structure →Price history
Daily closes · CoinbaseTechnical indicators
Network & development
Score over time
Related news
No headlines tied to Dogecoin yet.
Missing from this report
- Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
- Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
- Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
- ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
- Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API