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Cardano

ADA
$0.19542424h -1.47% · 7d -7.76% · 30d +1.14%

Last scan 10h ago

43Confidence-6.1

Slightly bearish (57% confidence)

Why this score

Cardano's Confidence Score dropped from 48.7 to 42.6 out of 100, largely due to a severe drag from its network score of 8 as on-chain activity fell 20% below its 30-day average alongside a bearish MACD trend signal. Development remains a strong counterweight with commits surging 89% and the price holding 5.3% above its 50-day average, though the asset continues to face heavy headwinds from an 84% drawdown relative to its 5-year high. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether on-chain network activity can rebound enough to help ADA overcome its broken long-term trend structure below the 200-day moving average.

Bullish
  • Above 50-day averagePrice is 5.3% above the 50-day moving average.
  • Development acceleratingCommits up 89% versus the prior 30 days.
Bearish
  • MACD below signalHistogram -0.00 — short-term trend is down.
  • Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
  • Network activity fallingOn-chain activity is 20% below its 30-day average.
Risks
  • Deep drawdownTrading 84% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum2907%50
Risk (inverted)1395%43
Network usage1744%8
Development930%60
News sentiment1744%53
Social sentimentn/a
Derivatives positioning698%est52
Tokenomics581%36

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

10h ago

Cardano’s (ADA) confidence score dropped from 48.7 to 42.6 since the last scan, driven primarily by a steep 39.2-point plunge in derivatives positioning from 92 to 52. News sentiment and momentum also softened, falling 14.1 points to 53 and 8.4 points to 50, respectively, while network usage provided a slight offset by rising 8.3 points from 0 to 8. No new anomaly flags were detected during this scan. This shift matters because the sharp unwind in leverage and weakening sentiment point to a cooling speculative environment, even as baseline network activity shows a minor uptick.

  • Momentum down 8.4 points (58 → 50)
  • Network usage up 8.3 points (0 → 8)
  • News sentiment down 14.1 points (67 → 53)
  • Derivatives positioning down 39.2 points (92 → 52)

AI confidence meter

Leaning bearish57%
Data quality
Good
Category coverage
88%
Conflicting signals
2
Missing data
Social sentiment
  • 7 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • 4 of 5 data feeds responded
  • 2 signals contradict the overall read
  • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Cardano shows short-term technical strength with its price sitting 5.3% above the 50-day moving average, supported by a solid development score of 60. Development efforts are accelerating rapidly, evidenced by commits increasing 89% over the prior 30 days. Furthermore, derivatives and news sub-scores remain neutral-to-positive at 52 and 53, respectively.

Bear case

Cardano's network sub-score is severely depressed at 8, driven by on-chain activity dropping 20% below its 30-day average. The long-term trend structure is broken with price trading below the 200-day moving average and a MACD histogram of -0.00 signaling short-term downward momentum. The asset also carries significant risk, trading 84% below its 5-year high alongside a weak tokenomics score of 36.

Balanced read: The evidence currently favors the bear case, reflected in a low overall confidence score of 42.6/100 and a 20% decline in on-chain activity below its 30-day average. A sustained push back above the 200-day moving average coupled with a recovery in the weak network score of 8 would be needed to flip the outlook toward the bulls.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
extremeVolume in the bottom 1% of its history4d ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.3th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.

rareVolume in the bottom 1% of its history27d ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.7th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Fear Up 1.1% over 30 days; 84% below the running high; Realised volatility 84%

What ADA is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d -0.13 · 90d -0.11 · Moving independently
Gold30d 0.29 · 90d 0.40 · Weak positive relationship
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d 0.20 · 90d 0.29 · Weak positive relationship
Silver30d 0.23 · 90d 0.35 · Weak positive relationship
Nasdaq 10030d 0.26 · 90d 0.41 · Weak positive relationship
S&P 50030d 0.35 · 90d 0.45 · Weak positive relationship
US Dollar Index30d -0.25 · 90d -0.31 · Weak inverse relationship

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change -76.6%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
54.5
Neutral range
MACD hist
SMA 50
$0.185845
SMA 200
$0.220048
Volatility 30d
74.1%
ATR 14
Bollinger %B
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
1.97M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.1631
Commits (30d)
100
GitHub
Contributors
Stars
Circulating supply
37.5B
Supply issued
--
Max 45B

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to Cardano yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.