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Bitcoin

BTC
$77,181.0024h -1.91% · 7d -2.42% · 30d +3.52%

Last scan 1d ago

61Confidence-7.1

Moderately bullish (61% confidence)

Why this score

Bitcoin’s Confidence Score dropped to 60.6 out of 100 from 67.7 in the previous scan, driven down by weakening short-term momentum as indicated by a MACD histogram of -77.92 and a broken long-term trend structure below its 200-day moving average. Despite this drop, strong sub-scores in derivatives (99), tokenomics (96), and positive news (70) help maintain a moderately positive outlook, even with the asset sitting in a deep 60% drawdown from its 5-year high. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether Bitcoin can hold its price 0.5% above the 50-day moving average to prevent short-term trend weakness from dragging the score down further.

Bullish
  • Above 50-day averagePrice is 0.5% above the 50-day moving average.
  • Positive news flowRecent coverage across 60 stories leans bullish.
Bearish
  • MACD below signalHistogram -77.92 — short-term trend is down.
  • Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
Risks
  • Deep drawdownTrading 60% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum2907%50
Risk (inverted)1395%82
Network usage1744%35
Development930%42
News sentiment1744%70
Social sentimentn/a
Derivatives positioning698%est99
Tokenomics581%96

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

1d ago

Bitcoin’s overall confidence score fell from 67.7 to 60.6 since the last scan, driven primarily by a sharp 33.9-point drop in network usage from 69 to 35. News sentiment also dipped from 76 to 70 alongside headlines citing escalating US-Iran tensions, while development saw a minor decrease from 45 to 42. Additionally, a new anomaly flag was triggered as volatility hit a multi-year low. This matters because the steep contraction in on-chain activity paired with suppressed volatility points to a sudden slowdown in underlying network participation.

  • Network usage down 33.9 points (69 → 35)
  • Development down 2.3 points (45 → 42)
  • News sentiment down 5.3 points (76 → 70)

AI confidence meter

Leaning bullish57%
Data quality
Good
Category coverage
88%
Conflicting signals
2
Missing data
Social sentiment
  • 7 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • 5 of 5 data feeds responded
  • 2 signals contradict the overall read
  • Score is 11 points off neutral

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Bitcoin displays strong underlying market structure, buoyed by near-perfect derivatives (99) and tokenomics (96) sub-scores. The price holds 0.5% above its 50-day moving average, reinforced by a positive news score of 70 across 60 headlines. Additionally, volatility is near a multi-year low, offering potential price consolidation.

Bear case

Long-term trend structure is broken as Bitcoin trades below its 200-day moving average and remains in a severe 60% drawdown from its 5-year high. Short-term momentum is similarly weak, evidenced by a negative MACD histogram of -77.92. On-chain activity reflects underlying sluggishness, with low network (35) and development (42) sub-scores.

Balanced read: With a confidence score of 60.6/100, the evidence currently slightly favors the bull case due to high derivatives (99) and tokenomics (96) strength. A sustained break below the 50-day moving average and further MACD decay beyond -77.92 would flip the outlook decisively to the bears.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
rareVolatility near a multi-year low1d ago

30-day annualised volatility of 25% sits at the 1.4th percentile of the last 2.7 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.

rareVolatility near a multi-year low2d ago

30-day annualised volatility of 25% sits at the 1.4th percentile of the last 2.7 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.

rareVolatility near a multi-year low3d ago

30-day annualised volatility of 25% sits at the 1.4th percentile of the last 2.7 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.

rareVolatility near a multi-year low4d ago

30-day annualised volatility of 25% sits at the 1.4th percentile of the last 2.7 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.

rareVolatility near a multi-year low6d ago

30-day annualised volatility of 25% sits at the 1.4th percentile of the last 2.7 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.

notableConfidence Score moved +8.0 points in a single scan6d ago

The score went from 56.9 to 64.9. Moves this large in one scan usually mean a category flipped rather than drifted.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Neutral Up 3.5% over 30 days; 60% below the running high; Realised volatility 27%

What BTC is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
Gold30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
Silver30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
Nasdaq 10030d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
S&P 50030d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
US Dollar Index30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change +38.0%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
46.8
Neutral range
MACD hist
SMA 50
$26,622.93
SMA 200
$28,025.79
Volatility 30d
25.2%
ATR 14
Bollinger %B
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Daily transactions
627.35K
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
-3.1%
Avg fee
254,963.2017
Commits (30d)
100
GitHub
Contributors
Stars
Circulating supply
20.08M
Supply issued
--
Max 21M

Score over time

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API

Research tool, not financial advice. Scores are computed from public data and can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. AI Bot Arena results are simulated paper trading, not actual investment returns.